Financial vibes don’t essentially predict electoral outcomes, although, and this marketing campaign is completely different in some ways from these previously. “We’re type of in an unprecedented scenario the place we’re weighing two incumbents,” mentioned Joanne Hsu, who runs the Michigan survey.

Anthony Rice, a 54-year-old Democrat in japanese Indiana, and just about everybody he is aware of, he mentioned, are doing nicely proper now. Gasoline costs are down, jobs are plentiful, and Mr. Rice, a unionized dump-truck driver, is benefiting straight from the infrastructure regulation that Mr. Biden signed in 2021. But few individuals within the deep-red a part of the nation the place he lives will acknowledge that, Mr. Rice mentioned.

“There are extra individuals now which might be working, have higher jobs, have extra probabilities to get higher jobs now than at every other time,” he mentioned. “I don’t perceive why they will’t see how good it’s.”

Amber Wichowsky, a political scientist at Marquette College who has studied voters’ financial perceptions, mentioned it was not stunning that many Individuals could be feeling uneasy regardless of robust financial information. The pandemic and its aftermath had been deeply disruptive, she mentioned, and it isn’t stunning that it might take time for issues to really feel regular once more.

The query, Ms. Wichowsky mentioned, is how a lot, if in any respect, voters’ views will shift because the marketing campaign will get underway in earnest. To this point, Mr. Biden has made little obvious progress in promoting his financial message, however many citizens aren’t but paying consideration. Within the coming months, the Biden marketing campaign can even ramp up a gross sales effort for the president’s financial report — together with billions of {dollars} in spending on infrastructure and clear vitality, which is able to turn into simpler to speak as initiatives get underway.